Spring off to a wet start

THE way that spring has begun, it appears that farmers had better chase the cobwebs from their gumboots and prepare for a muddy summer.
Traditionally in Queensland, the wet season starts after the spring equinox on September 23.
But that hasn’t been the case for many years.
Some climate scientists even suggest that climate change has postponed the onset of Queensland’s wet season. Also, I know through our drought work at QFF that in some seasons and many regions the rains never really arrived all summer.
At the peak of the drought in 2007, the declared area of drought reached 68 percent of the state, and all of that was also “exceptional circumstances” meaning a one-in-twenty year dry.
Today that figure is down to 1.4 percent, and in all likelihood this will fall to zero when local drought committees review conditions.
Last week we had unusual wet and cold conditions in central Australia. This week we have seen huge downpours in the north, with some of the falls rivalling the cyclonic-type rain normally reserved for late summer.
Near Mackay, there was 120mm and greater on Monday, creating flood warnings for some of the rivers there. Meanwhile out west more rain is coming in from the Indian Ocean and there are flood warnings for the Warrego, Thomson and Barcoo rivers.
The forecasters are in consensus that this weather pattern is associated with a La Nina event.
In recent weeks the La Nina has consolidated, which has the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) making positive rainfall predictions for the next three months.
La Nina weather patterns are usually – but not always – associated with wetter than average weather in eastern Australia.
For much of Queensland there is a 60 to 80 percent chance of exceeding average rainfall for the coming months.
The odds are highest for inland Australia, but coastal Queensland also seems set for a wet spring. Inland Australia has already had an unusually wet winter.
According to Roger Stone’s Climate Outlook and Review, eastern Pacific Ocean temperatures, which drive either a La Nina or El Nino, are cooling rapidly while northern and Indian Ocean temperatures are rising.
This, plus strong easterly winds in equatorial Pacific regions, produces the type of weather we are currently experiencing and it sets up the pattern for a prolonged wet season.
Not all regions are guaranteed to get the rains, but the seasonal outlook is as good as I’ve seen for many years.
For QFF and its members, this will be welcome news, although it is worth noting that the current rain does present its challenges.
Some sugar mills have lost over a week of crushing time in September alone and the harvest is continuing to lag significantly behind schedule. The delays and wet weather are disappointing for growers that had been hoping to make the most of sugar prices that are returning to form.
Cotton planting will start next month, and while a large acreage is expected in 2010/2011, this rain will also sprout a fresh crop of weeds. As always, that means heightened concerned for spray drift damage, particularly with cotton expected in areas where it has not been seen for a few years.
Other commodities such as dairy and horticulture are still faced with marketing challenges in a domestic market dominated by the major supermarket chains. Nonetheless, good rainfall and irrigation supplies will allow these producers to get on with the job of farming.
When it is all said and done, we will watch the skies and radar with interest and hope that Queensland can see this as a period of positive seasons and that our primary producers don’t have to cope with the widespread damages associated with the floods that we have already seen earlier this year.